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Главная   Статьи   Фрейминг, перестановка предпочтений, часть 1

Фрейминг, перестановка предпочтений, часть 1

600 человек заболели опасным вирусом и нужно принять решение, относительно того, какая вакцина будет использоваться. Есть две вакцины: А и B.

Опция A: 200 будут спасены.

Опция B: с вероятностью 1/3, 600 человек будут спасены.

При такой презентации опций, люди склонны избегать риск. В большинстве случаев, выбирается опция А.

Опция C: 400 человек умрут точно.

Опция D: вероятность 1/3 к тому, что никто не умрет и, 2/3, что 600 человек умрут.

Фрейминг в терминах потерь. У человека, принимающего решение, появляется склонность к риску. Чаще всего выбирается опция D.

Несмотря на то, что условия задания одинаковые, в зависимости от формулирования опций, люди принимают разные решения.

 

Что бы вы выбрали:

  • получить $500,000 при судебном иске с вероятностью 50%.
  • получить $240,000 при заключении договоренности вне суда с вероятностью 100%.

 Еще один пример.

Опция A: получить $1000 в любом случае.

Опция B: получить $2200 с вероятностью 50%.

Несмотря на то, что в опции B, ожидаемая сумма составляет $1100 ($2200 x 50%), что больше чем ожидаемая сумма в опции A ($1000 x 100%), большинство людей выбирают опцию А.

Люди с аверсией риска, коих большинство, предпочитают получить меньшую сумму денег, зато без риска.

Фрейм азартного игрока.

Опция А: 100% вероятность потерять $50;

Опция Б: 25% вероятность потерять $200, 75% вероятность потерять $0.

Фрейминг при продаже дополнительной страховки.

  • 25% шанс потерять $200, 75% шанс потерять $0;
  • заплатить $50 для того, чтобы застраховаться от возможных потерь:
    • Увеличивает вашу склонность к избеганию риска.  

Страхование полностью построено на вероятности попадания в несчастный случай.

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