+7 (495) 215-16-73
sg@semingroup.ru Контакты
Главная   Статьи   Принятие решений. Вступление

Принятие решений. Вступление

Подходы к принятию решений:

Нормативное принятие решений:

  • то, как люди должны принимать решения в идеале;
  •  основано на человеческой рациональности;
  • принятие решений на основании экономических моделей;
  • теория вероятности, теория ожидаемой выгоды.

Описательное (такое как в жизни) принятие решений:

  • как люди на самом деле принимают решения;
  • основано на ограниченной рациональности;
  • психологический подход: систематические ошибки в мышлении, фрейминг;
  • ситуационное/социальное/ культурное воздействие на принятие решений.

Системы мышления 1 и 2.

Система мышления 1:

  • интуитивное мышление: быстрое, автоматическое, легкое, подсознательное, эмоциональное;
  • подвержено воздействию различных предрасположенностей и эвристик, вследствие чего совершаются систематические ошибки в мышлении.

Система мышления 2:

  • сознательное мышление;
  • медленное, осознанное, напряженное, логическое.

Что такое эвристики?

  • п равила и принципы, позволяющие людям  быстро принимать решения;
  • кратчайший мыслительный путь для принятия решения.

Достоинства: снижает количество времени и усилий, требуемых для оценки ситуации и принятия решения.

Недостатки: использование эвристик приводит к систематическим ошибкам в мышлении.

Как предубеждения закрадываются в процесс принятия решений

Этапы решения задачи и проблемы, возникающие на каждом этапе:

1.На этапе оценки ситуации и идентификации проблемы, люди подвержены влиянию защитных механизмов и фрейминга

2.При определении критериев и веса каждого отдельного критерия, люди склонны анализировать слишком много или мало информации; подвержены эвристике доступности.

3.При разработке альтернатив, люди подтверждают принятые ранее гипотезы, вне зависимости от уместности их применения в данной ситуации.

4.Выбранное решение может оказаться не оптимальным с точки зрения ожидаемой выгоды. (Выгода) x (вероятность получения выгоды) = ожидаемая выгода

5.Объективно ли происходит оценка выбранного решения: совпадает ли текущее положение дел с желаемым?

Комментарии к статье

wty123 26.05.2017

they nike air max 2014 are not cheap oakley sunglasses selling nike air these air max things nike outlet store are nba jerseys not marc jacobs outlet very oakley valuable, air max 2014 "said chrome hearts jewelry the Englishman," nfl patriots they michael kors just polo outlet online mineral pandora jewellery crystal, nfl titans nothing adidas shoes outlet more. tory burch shoes There toms outlet are coach factory outlet online hundreds barbour outlet of ten thousand mineral crystal burberry handbags on vans schuhe Earth, salvatore ferragamo but ray ban knowledgeable people hogan shoes outlet know that they are the barbour women jackets Urim and nfl falcons Thummim. At hilfiger outlet first, air max I did not cheap oakley know ray ban black friday this hollister place has north face pas cher produced adidas neo Urim jordan shoes and Thummim celine handbags This cleveland cavaliers jerseys is ray bans a zapatillas nike sage free run gave toms shoes me new balance a adidas.se gift. dsquared2 shoes "The boy cheap oakley sunglasses said ferragamo the scarpe hogan British burberry outlet have michael kors not said huaraches anything. katespade outlet Then barbour mens jackets he prada outlet reached jimmy choo into his ed hardy clothing pocket, took out north face jackets two michael kors v?skor trembling cheap oakley identical montre pas cher gems coach outlet you nfl azcardinals mention coach purses to nfl seahawks a converse shoes sage." cheap michael kors And he burberry outlet online said you christian louboutin do not polo ralph lauren outlet believe in deities toms shoes and lunette oakley pas cher Shepherd nfl rams will babyliss talk. barbour women jackets "The roshe run boy nfl steelers said, nfl bears this longchamp outlet time nike huarache he wants to bcbg dresses end the nike online conversation." burberry bags outlet On the contrary. When dsquared2 jeans the relojes especiales rest vans outlet of adidas sneakers the world thomas sabo uk refuses san antonio spurs to russell westbrook jersey recognize prada a oakley outlet online sage, timberland outlet is ferragamo shoes the shepherd nike.de first ray ban sunglasses recognized womens hoodies strong and kate spade resolute.One p90x workout schedule writer said: nike store the nfl buccaneers way of orlando magic life, nfl saints always kobe bryant jersey still rayban sunglasses have hilfiger to sac jerseys quietly coach handbags outlet finish. giuseppe zanotti Things ray ban of oakley sunglasses life, there longchamp outlet is always burberry outlet online whether michael kors bags you lunette ray ban pas cher like asics gel it or air jordan not, adidas superstar it should givenchy bags outlet happen, thomas sabo you swarovski jewelry can replica watches only swarovski accept; michael kors purses always oakley sunglasses cheap something, whether the north face you burberry hide gafas oakley not red bottoms escape, christian louboutin shoes it nike air max must polo ralph lauren outlet come, you just ralph lauren have to oakley outlet face. ray ban wayfarer In this chi hair world, not pistons jersey all free running things michael kors outlet online sale are michael kors outlet logical, tommy hilfiger online shop sometimes clothing websites the bos jersey mountain is the coach factory outlet online story michael kors bags of michael kors water, washington wizards the cloud mcm handbags is plein outlet the designer handbags story beats audio of nfl dolphins the wind; adidas shoes some time, nop jerseys the michael kors outlet online star nike free shoes is not toms.com the toms shoes outlet story of milwaukee bucks the knicks jerseys night, dallas mavericks jersey love michael kors australia is the north face not love mcm outlet stories. Life tory burch sandals is louboutins ever louboutin changing, fickle nike air force things, coach factory online why are ralph lauren outlet those roshes non-scores tangled? jordan release dates Bearish, it armani clothing does mia jersey not swarovski crystal matter timberland boots right oakley black friday and longchamp black friday wrong; air max shoes put michael kors down, louboutin shoes success converse chucks or ralph lauren black friday failure will hermes bags then matter.To mcm bags learn ralph lauren outlet online to watches a ralph lauren person walking, reebok a celine black friday person new balance thinking, indiana pacers a ralph lauren online person oakley efforts to nike max understand the replica watches essence hermes outlet of asics their own life, to soccer outlet online know joy roche run behind wholesale handbags permanent regret beats by dre to quiet and burberry uk peaceful mind to nfl panthers experience the life rolex of nike free 5.0 loneliness true religion jeans women and tory burch shoes pain. nba jerseys When we overcome bcbg max azria the nfl jaguars grief, michael kors bags pain, and kate spade outlet since cheap jerseys then, north face outlet our mbt shoes outlet lives, nfl bills will like the summer nike air sun, occhiali oakley thorough beats by dre bright kanye west shoes shine. Time soccer shoes can be salomon schuhe old michael kors outlet online face, nfl bengals memories michael kors outlet fade, toms outlet change nike air max 2015 the landscape, hermes birkin but nike outlet the nfl cowboys tranquil levis outlet store and nfl texans bright mood, if coach outlet you puma outlet store stick to abercrombie it toms outlet given puma not houston rockets lost. cheap michael kors Calm heart, the oakley sunglasses outlet world nfl redskins will flat iron become nike huaraches calm, converse outlet resolute ralph lauren tracksuits heart, iphone 5 cases the tommy hilfiger suffering ralph lauren uk would not nike free run be cheap nike shoes suffering.Just iphone 4s cases bright enough heart, air max 2015 even tommy hilfiger outlet stores though polo ralph lauren there air jordans is nike.se little haze kevin durant shoeskobe bryant shoes anyway. timberland homme We mcm backpack outlet walked michaelkors.com all vibram shoes the cheap jerseys way, michael kors bags just mizuno running shoes to pandora say fake rolex goodbye adidas to the uhren past, enjoy michael kors handbags the longchamp scenery. cheap eyeglasses In michael kors outlet online sale the burberry online shop hustle and coach factory outlet online bustle nike outlet of cheap true religion the north face Red, the oakley prescription pastoral longchamp taschen landscape new balance shoes that hugo boss outlet party coach outlet stick ray ban sbocco in nike tn requin my michael kors bags mind. Chaos nfl chargers in the heart, replica handbags not nfl vikings trapped cheap jerseys in nfl ravens the bottega situation, ray ban sunglasses without fear true religion outlet of swarovski the future, memphis grizzlies do not polo ralph lauren read salvatore ferragamo in rolex replica the past. michael kors bags Do nfl giants not true religion worry rayban about the coach factory outlet online season suns jerseys will not prada outlet grow nfl eagles old, nike roshe do hollister not cheap oakley sunglasses worry mcm bags about the sun timberland shoes and cheap ray ban the prada handbags moon charlotte hornets jersey will not valentino shoes outlet be oakley dark. tory burch sale Fan polo ralph Wu michael kors among swarovski retain cheap glasses the ray-ban sunglasses true, nike air max return lacoste polos to nfl packers nature, denver nuggets meditation nike free shoes cultivation.Buddha true religion jeans outlet said: A nfl colts life such ray ban sunglasses as jerseys from china living in converse the jordans for sale forest of thorns, toronto raptors the utah jazz heart swarovski australia does portland trail blazers not coach outlet online move coach outlet online people ray ban outlet do woolrich outlet online not baseball bats frivolous, roshe run not moving northface is pandora bracelets not burberry handbags hurt. giuseppe shoes White louboutin outlet plum los angeles clippers blossoms hogan fall, omega watches he kate spade outlet online said: softball bats Life coach outlet sale was michael kors handbags not nike air max begging, no ralph lauren factory store matter hollister kids how shoes on sale life's ralph lauren uk distress, hollister online shop deutschland should prada sunglasses calmly nike.com go nfl broncos on, ray ban sunglasses I cheap jerseys do burberry sale not live jimmy choo shoes up nfl browns to ralph lauren shirts Shaoguang. the north face San vans shoes Mao said: baseball jerseys If supra footwear you nfl 49ers were instyler ionic styler reincarnated, ray ban outlet do a tree, mont blanc pens stand shop coach factory in pandora rings eternity, not replica rolex sad ralph lauren outlet posture: half in hollister co the dust, coach outlet serene, dre beats half air jordan shoes flying in www.tommyhilfiger.nl the ua stephen curry air; pandora half longchamp handbags of the air max 90 scattered versace shoes outlet shade, jerseys from china half chicago bulls sun bathing. bottega veneta Very nfl jets very proud air max 95 of nike mercurial vapor silence, philadelphia 76ers jersey never nets jersey rely on calvin klein never louboutin find. nba jerseys Huiyin new balance store said: gentle to wedding dresses uk have, but hollister clothing store not toms outlet compromise, fendi outlet online we cheap true religion need jerseys from china to new balance in silence, ray ban zonnebril calmly cheap basketball shoes strong. marc jacobs handbags Enron north face backpacks years nfl lions sitting longchamp in nike.dk a nike mercurial corner, burberry outlet online in oakley sunglasses a rayban serene nike air force and no one coach black friday can find long champ a nfl raiders place coach bags to tommy hilfiger put nfl jerseys those people and things designer handbags painful, buried burberry handbags in nfl chiefs the deepest michael kors black friday years. polo ralph lauren outlet online Since ralph lauren polo then, the north face outlet the moon burberry and let him supra shoes down Lau, heart minnesota timberwolves and nike air max no polo ralph lauren rain and air jordan retro no clear. nike outlet Without fear or panic, hurry, juicy couture let michael kors purses students pandora peace michael kors outlet online of mind, michael kors handbags so gsw jerseys that juicy couture clothings the soul barbour mens jackets of peace, ray ban sunglasses outlet to have philipp plein clothes life ralph lauren henceforth oakley sunglasses outlet clear sky. ecco women shoes Quietly, quietly, replica watches enjoying adidas.de one of coach black friday Chunhuaqiuyue. burberry handbags

nike roshe
ByronArorb 29.05.2017
adnexal adenoma intestinum ileum external nose cervical calicotomy fatal familial insomnia candle-meter chi-square (П‡2) brachycranic ligamentum intercarpalia dorsalia generic paxil online Jones anterior serratus muscle idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF)
Kelduaste 21.06.2017
Buy Albuterol Inhaler Online Cheap Buy Cialis Online Usa Can I Mix Amoxicillin With Water Want To Buy Dutasteride Viagra Cheap Online Viagra Per Gli Anziani Cephalexin Antibiotic Side Effects viagra Viagra Vs Canadian Generica Viagra Kamagra Jelly Usa Feline Cephalexin Diarreah Acquistare Kamagra Pfizer Francia Buy Priligy 60mg Plavix Online Prices Onljne Pharmacies Online Levitra Amoxil Dose For Dogs
Bennyeluct 24.06.2017
wh0cd155336 ATENOLOL ONLINE buy elimite
CharlesGit 24.06.2017
wh0cd736616 viagra online buy zovirax
Kelduaste 24.06.2017
Cialis Online Mastercard viagra Comprar Cialis En Farmacia Online Viagra Online Italia Cialis Free Offer Venta De Kamagra Online Tadalafil Generic 40 Mg India viagra cialis purchase isotretinoin without rx Propecia Cipla Canadian Buy Accutane Amoxicillin Liquid And Indications Priligy Dapoxetine 60 Mg Cialis Free Offer Cialis Hollande Propecia Gleicher Wirkstoff Generic Viagra Nexium Online Order Amoxicilline 500 Grossesse Buy Generic Cialis Online Zithromax Sinusitis Dosage Costo Levitra Farmacia Brand Viagra Online Ibilex Cephalexin Std Levitra 20 Mg Orosolubile China Viagra Online Levitra Bayer 10 Mg Levitra Generique Avis Buy Priligy Viagra Online Viagra Achat France Buy Viagra Generic Levitra Plus Viagra In Pomata Amoxicillin Chlamydia Pid Cialis Order Cytotec 20mg Conditionnement Q 10 With Amoxicillin Price Of Zithromax Nizagara Canadian Pharmacy Cialis Cuanto Tomar Cialis Prices Buy Kamagra Soft Cialise 20 Buy Viagra Online Usa Venta De Cialis Internet Viagra Anonym Bestellen generic levitra no prescription Kamagra Vendita Francia Levitra Professional Purchase Generic Cialis Prezzo Levitra In Italia Cialis Et Ulcere Buy Levitra Forum Cialis Brausetabletten Viagra Pills Phramacy Levitra Brand Achat Viagra En Inde Pharmacy Canadian Viagra Online Blue Propecia Duracion Osu Levitra Comprar Affordable Levitra Uk Buy Albenza Oral Cialis Viagra Assuefazione Cheap Viagra Fast Kamagra Bestellen Und Kaufen Where Can I Buy Methotrexate Propecia Buy Online Propecia Cotizacion Order Levitra levitra samples Amoxil Informations Levlen Tri Regol Buy Accutane Uk Sale Generic Fluoxetine Cialis Levitra Generic Cialis Cheapest No Prescription Tretinoin Acyclovir 400 Mg Tablets To Buy viagra Sildenafil Mastercard Can Zithromax Treat Chlamydia buy cialis Cialis Kreuzschmerzen Buy Amoxicillin For Pet Buy Real Viagra Online Cheap Viagra Online Canadian Pharmacy Acheter Xenical 120 Buy Viagra Online Usa Levitra Bailler 20mg Dexamethasone Over Counter Levitra Generic Priligy Latest News Mail Order Provera who has the cheapest levitra Buy Ventolin Inhalers Without Script Kamagra Jelly Ireland Viagra Cheap Cialis For Sale Kamagra Generico Mail Order Viagra Cialis Precio 5 Mg Amoxicillin Ear Drops For Adults Viagra Price Comprar Viagra Espana Canadian Pharmices Levitra Pills Online Transaminasas Propecia Generico Buy Amitriptyline 50mg Purchasing Levitra Buy Levothyroxine Tablets Online Propecia Finasteride Problems Fast Shipping Viagra Amoxicillin Side Effect Baby Hyper Discount Secure Ordering Dutasteride Best Buy In Internet Where Buy Propecia Amoxicillin Dosage Days Zithromax Pi Buy Levitra 20mg Usa Hydrochlorothiazide Want To Buy Mastercard On Line Medicine Online Pill Viagra Prices Propecia Customer Specifications Can You Drink On Amoxicillin Propecia Pill Generic Diflucan Without A Prescription
Оставить комментарий
Вернуться к списку статей