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1. Эвристика доступности в памяти

У людей есть предрасположенность оценивать вероятность возникновения событий на основании той информации, которая легко приходит на ум. Если пример яркий и произошел недавно, то при принятии решения, человек его обязательно вспомнит. Сотрудник, стол которого находится рядом с кабинетом руководителя, может получить более критичную обратную связь по итогам года, так как руководитель хорошо помнит ошибки, совершенные этим сотрудником.

Допустим, ваш знакомый рассказывал, что он купил подержанный BMW и был вынужден возить его в сервис каждые выходные. В следующий раз, когда вы поедете выбирать машину себе, вы вспомните этот случай, и с меньшей вероятностью захотите купить поддержаный BMW. Важно заметить, что статистически, рассказ одного (!) вашего знакомого про то, что поддержаные BMW нуждаются в частой починке, не имеет никакого веса, так существуют десятки тысяч автомобилей BMW, которые исправно работают.

Важно также знать, что простое представление события увеличивает воспринимаемую вероятность события. То есть, если перед полетом на самолете, пассажир вспоминает про известные авиакатастрофы, то он будет думать о том, что его самолет тоже может упасть. Таким образом, воспринимаемая вероятность происшествия повышается. Важно выделить слово «воспринимаемая» - пассажиру будет казаться, что его самолет упадет. Но, сколько бы пассажир не думал об падениях самолетов, это не заставит самолет упасть. Мысли не могут повлиять на физические объекты).

Лотереи популярны, так как все помнят громкие победы и большие выигрыши. Каждый думает, что повезет именно ему. Красочная картинка, в которой покупатель лотерейного билета срывает большой куш, подталкивает людей к покупке билетов. Однако, чего обыватели не понимают, так это того, что при покупке 20 лотерейных билетов каждую неделю, они будут выигрывать 1 раз в 40,000 лет!

Когда случайную выборку людей спросили, какова по их мнению самая распространенная причина смертей, они ответили:

  • диабет;
  • убийство;
  • торнадо / молнии;
  • автомобильные аварии;
  • рак желудка.

Те примеры, которые легко вспоминались, послужили основой их рассуждений.

Маркетинговые последствия эвристики доступности:

  • страховые компании рекламируют свои услуги на фоне стихийных бедствий, автомобильных аварий;
  • вегас – все думают только о том, что выйграют. Каждый считает себя особенным и не предполагает, что с большей вероятностью все проиграет;
  • сильные ассоциации между брендом и продуктом;
  • известные бренды и люди – классический условный рефлекс;
  • постоянная реклама для того, чтобы напоминать о продукте;
  • рядом с полицейским участком расклеено множество объявлений юристов;
  • рядом с госпиталями много объявлений страховых компаний.

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